GTHA New Condo Sales Fall to Nearly 30-Year Low in Q3-24

TORONTO – October 18, 2024:  Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the condominium market since 1981, released its Q3-2024 Condominium Market Survey results today.

The Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) new condominium market reported a total of 567 sales in Q3-2024, the lowest quarterly total since Q1-1995. New condo sales fell 81% year-over-year and were 87% below the latest 10-year average for Q3 periods. 

Year-to-date new condominium sales totalled 3,641 units, down 63% from the same period last year and 84% below the same period in 2021, putting the GTHA new condo market on track for its slowest year since 1996. 

Unsold new condominium units in development decreased 4.4% quarter-over-quarter from the record high of 25,018 units in Q2-2024 to 23,918 units in Q3-2024. It was the largest quarterly decline in unsold inventory in two-and-a-half years, mainly resulting from a lack of new project launches, with only one project totaling 177 units brought to market in Q3-2024. 

Compared to a year ago unsold new condo inventory increased 16%, rising 56% above the latest 10-year average. Unsold inventory was comprised of 11,629 units in pre-construction projects, 11,356 units in under construction projects, and 933 units in completed projects. A 76% share of unsold inventory was in projects that required purchaser deposits of at least 20%. As a result, the new mortgage rules will likely have a limited direct impact on new condos, since most buyers were already able to access 30-year amortizations. A 13% share of unsold units required 15% in deposits, and an 11% share required 10% deposits or less.

Among active new condominium projects that previously launched for presales, three projects totaling 1,111 units were converted to purpose-built rental and an additional eight projects totaling 2,231 units were either put on hold, cancelled or placed into receivership during the third quarter. Over the past two years, 33 new condominium projects totaling 6,796 units that were actively selling were either converted to rental, put on hold, cancelled or went into receivership.

A total of 2,163 new condominiums started construction in the third quarter, a 13% year-over-year decline and the slowest Q3 period for starts in over a decade. The year-to-date total of 7,200 new condo starts fell 53% from the same period in 2023 and were down 73% from the same period in 2022. The 88,967 total new condominiums under construction across the GTHA in Q3-2024 represented a more than three-year low.

Condominium completions are on track to reach a total of 24,386 units in 2024, slightly edging out last year’s record high of 24,114 completions. Condo completions are projected to reach another record high of 29,409 units in 2025 before declining in the years that follow.

Unsold new condo prices averaged $1,349 psf in Q3-2024, a 2.4% year-over-year decline. Since reaching a record of $1,429 psf two years ago in Q3-2022, average new condo prices have decreased by 5.6%. This was on top of incentives, which can include cash back at closing and other price adjustments and concessions. 

“The new condo market is facing its toughest challenge in decades. Investors are inactive and end-user buyers currently have plenty of lower-priced options to choose from in the resale market. It may take a while, but conditions will gradually improve as developers hold back supply, construction inventory continues to drop, and demand rises with declining interest rates." 

                                    --Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation

ABOUT THE CONDOMINIUM MARKET SURVEY

Urbanation has been surveying the GTA condominium market each quarter since 1981 through established relationships with the region's developers, brokerages, and lenders. In addition, our team of experienced researchers conduct regular site visitations to compile the industry's most in-depth coverage on every new condominium project in development across the region.

Urbanation's Condominium Market Survey subscription provides access to our historical online database of new condominium developments in the GTA, Hamilton and the rest of the Greater Golden Horseshoe, including full project profiles and unit information, and market reporting metrics such as sales totals, absorption rates, inventory levels, average sold and unsold prices per sf, incentives, and more. Data is reported at the individual project level, with tools to generate regional, municipal, and submarket totals. Information on upcoming new condo project launches and future developments are tracked in our proposed database, which is also included as part of the Condo Market Survey subscription.

ABOUT URBANATION

Urbanation is a real estate consulting firm that has been providing market research, in-depth market analysis and consulting services to the real estate industry since 1981. Urbanation offers subscription services and custom market studies covering the new construction condominium and purpose-built rental apartment markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe and in Ottawa. 

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